USDA increases US corn production estimate, cuts stocks

By Heather Schlitz

(Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for corn production and cut the soybean production forecast on Friday, adjusting its estimates in line with the amount of acres planted with each crop.

However, the Department cut its estimates for ending stocks of old and new crop corn and soybeans below what analysts had expected.

Expectations of large crops from the U.S. have pushed future prices of both commodities near four-year lows. The USDA forecasts the 2024/25 corn crop to be the third-largest in U.S. history and said corn end stocks would still be the largest in six years as of September 2025.

Corn and soy futures on the Chicago Board of Trade turned higher following release of the data, due to the smaller than expected stocks.

"The big surprise here was the old crop corn carryover coming down a lot more than expectations," said Ted Seifried, vice president of Zaner Group.

USDA forecast the 2023/24 corn crop end stocks to be 1.877 billion bushels, down from June and below expectations of 2.049 billion bushels.

The USDA forecasted corn production at 15.1 billion bushels, above the average analyst expectation of 15.063 billion bushels.

"There is still plenty of corn. What matters now is the growing conditions for the whole crop as we go into pollination in the next six or so weeks," Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium Trading, said.

The USDA forecasted soy production at 4.435 billion bushels, above analyst estimates of 4.424 billion bushels.

Last month USDA forecast corn production of 14.860 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 4.450 billion bushels.

U.S. 2024/25 corn end stocks forecast clocked in at 2.097 billion bushels, lower than the agency's estimates in June and lower than analyst expectations at 2.31 billion bushels.

Soybeans end stocks for 2024/25 were forecast at 435 million bushels, lower than the expected 449 million bushels and a decrease from June's 455 million bushels.

(Reporting by Heather Schlitz; Additional reporting by Renee Hickman and PJ Huffstutter; Editing by David Gregorio)