Fact check: 2022 midterm election was secure, contrary to claim of mail-in ballot fraud

Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY

The claim: Democrats used 47 million mail-in ballots to steal every U.S. midterm election

As was the case two years ago, the 2022 midterm elections have sparked a litany of baseless accusations of fraud. Some social media users claim Democrats used mail-in ballots to steal every election contest in the country.

"They learned their lesson in 2020. They said rolling in suitcases at 3am is for the birds, let’s just cook this weeks ahead of time with 47 MILLION mail-in ballots while nobody is watching," reads part of a Nov. 9 Instagram post's caption. "That’s enough ballots to steal every election in the country and that’s just what they did."

The post also claims that not a single incumbent Democrat lost anywhere, and that ballot splitting doesn't happen in reality and is evidence of fraud.

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But the claim is baseless.

Election experts told USA TODAY that officials ensure that every mail-in ballot is linked to an eligible voter, and that voter fraud by mail is very rare. Although it is not clear yet how many mail-in ballots were counted in the midterms, not all ballots cast were for Democrats. News reports show Democrat incumbents have lost races in the midterms.

USA TODAY reached out to the social media user who shared the claim for comment.

Every mail-in ballot is linked to an eligible voter

The post presents no evidence supporting the claim of 47 million illegitimate ballots. That's because there is none, said Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, told USA TODAY in an email.

Such an operation would be impossible to carry out since mail-in ballots must be tied to an eligible voter before they are processed and counted. When a mail-in ballot is received at the elections office, the identity and eligibility of the voter are verified, usually by signature matching or matching the labeled identification number on the ballot's envelope before any ballot is opened, as USA TODAY previously reported.

"Instances of mail voting fraud are vanishingly rare," Rebecca Green, co-director of the Election Law Program at William & Mary Law School, told USA TODAY via email. "Several states vote exclusively by mail and have numerous security processes in place to detect and deter fraud."

Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency within the Department of Homeland Security, also said in a statement that the agency had ''seen no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was any way compromised in any race in the country” in the midterm election.

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There is not a final number on how many mail-in ballots were processed and counted in the midterms to date, according to McDonald, who tracks election statistics for the United States Elections Project. As of Nov. 8, McDonald reported that over 58 million mail ballots were requested and more than 25 million mail ballots were returned.

But certainly not all of those voters cast ballots for Democrats, McDonald said.

And Democrat incumbents have lost races, contrary to the post's claim.

In Iowa, for instance, Republican Iowa state Sen. Zach Nunn defeated Democrat incumbent Cindy Axne for a House seat representing the state's third congressional district. And Republican Virginia state Sen. Jen Kiggans beat Democrat incumbent Elaine Luria for a House seat representing the state's second congressional district.

The post is also off-base claiming ticket-splitting is evidence of something nefarious at play.

Ticket splitting – which occurs when eligible voters choose candidates from opposing political parties for different offices – is a long-documented phenomenon that occurs throughout the country, though it has declined in recent election cycles. Examples in the midterms include Wisconsin, which re-elected Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, and Nevada, which elected Republican candidate Joe Lombardo as governor and Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto to the Senate. This is not an indicator of election fraud, McDonald said.

PolitiFact also debunked the claim.

Our rating: False

Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that Democrats used 47 million mail-in ballots to steal every U.S. midterm election in the country. Officials ensure every mail-in ballot is associated with an eligible voter, as USA TODAY previously reported, and states have measures in place to detect voter fraud by mail. It is not clear how many mail-in ballots were counted in the midterms. But Democrat incumbents have lost races, and ticket-splitting is not a sign of election fraud, experts say.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: Mail-in balloting secure, not tied to fraud in midterms

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