Devastating losses: Economic toll from Maui fires at least $4 billion, Moody's projects

The wildfires in Maui are thought to have caused at least $4 billion in economic losses, according to a report from Moody’s Analytics.

The risk modeling agency estimates that the wildfires, which destroyed more than 2,000 structures, caused $4 billion to $6 billion in losses from property damage and business interruption, with the town of Lahaina taking the brunt of the damage. That's not including up to $1 billion in lost output, the report added.

Additionally, gross domestic product loss, government payments and additional social costs from the wildfires were not included in the estimate, meaning the total cost of the wildfire is likely higher. At least 75% of the damage is thought to be covered by insurance.

"The damage figures are unusually large for such a small footprint," Adam Kamins, a Moody's senior economist who co-wrote the report, told USA TODAY on Tuesday. "Usually, the economic impact such as this is more spread out, but in the case of this fire, it wreaked havoc in a fairly dense area fairly quickly."

Number of missing people in Maui wildfire climbs

At least 115 people died in the Aug. 8 disaster, and Hawaii officials said Tuesday that 1,000 people were still missing after having lowered the count to about 850 on Monday.

The number of missing people fluctuates daily as new reports are filed and people are located, FBI Special Agent in Charge Steven Merrill said at a news conference late Tuesday.

Maui Police Chief John Pelletier added that authorities plan to release a verified list of those unaccounted for in the coming days as the FBI assists in the recovery. Pelletier compared the search in Lahaina to the search for survivors and victims after the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City on 9/11.

"We don’t have that type of devastation with the towers like we saw there, but we have an entire town that is destroyed," Pelletier said. “Realistically, let’s be honest here − we are going to have a number of confirmed, we are going to have a number of presumed. I do not have that number now. We are going to work diligently to get that. It may take a while."

Rebuilding and reconstruction in Maui could take years, Moody's expert says

Kamins said rebuilding and recovery could lead to some "small pockets" of Lahaina and West Maui reopening by mid- to late fall. But in Hawaii's Kahului metro area, which is home toMaui, the nation’s second-least affordable economy among roughly 400 U.S. metros, Kamins adds the wildfire's aftermath could push the cost of living higher, including housing. The median price of a single-family home in Maui is just above $1 million.

That could further erode any progress the state made on affordable living and spark a new migration of residents in a state that is struggling to retain them, Kamins said.

"That's the big unknown," Kamins said, adding that the effects in the near term will be significant.

Kamins says in his report that jobs will probably be shed as some hotels close their doors or look to cut costs. Some restaurants and retailers also will permanently close their doors, even if their establishments survived the fires. And state revenue, which relies heavily on taxes paid by tourists, could fall in the near term, creating fiscal challenges.

Another expert forecasts Hawaii wildfire damage in the billions

Moody's isn't alone in estimating damage from the Hawaii wildfires in the billions. In a preliminary estimate, commercial forecaster AccuWeather says total damage and economic loss from the wildfires will be $14 bilion to $16 billion ‒ or about 15% of the state's GDP. Accuweather's estimate also factored in tourism, which it said accounts for 75% of the revenue generated in Maui and will "take months, if not longer, to recover."

"Unfortunately, upon surveying the latest damage reports from Hawaii, especially in Maui, to homes, businesses (and) boats, the extensive loss of life, evacuations, widespread power outages and other factors, we increased our estimate," said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

Rebuilding is expected to be costly, according to Moody's report. Labor costs and other expenses are already elevated on the island, and inflation will likely continue to drive up costs throughout the recovery time.

"Even with rebuilding efforts providing a boost by fall, this is more than enough to suggest a brief but severe local recession," Moody's report said.

'The next Maui could be anywhere': Hawaii tragedy points to US wildfire vulnerability

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Maui fires aftermath: Economic losses total at least $4B, per Moody's